Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co.,Ltd. (600079.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.38 - $77.85$38.14
Multi-Stage$23.27 - $25.50$24.37
Blended Fair Value$31.26
Current Price$21.08
Upside48.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.44%16.58%0.780.360.380.410.430.600.630.350.290.26
YoY Growth--115.98%-4.12%-7.91%-6.25%-27.12%-5.28%82.12%20.60%11.23%53.73%
Dividend Yield--3.77%1.79%1.40%2.36%1.41%4.39%5.17%2.22%1.45%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,428.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)686.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)742.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)285.73178.58107.15
Cash Retained (M)742.55742.55742.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-285.73-178.58-107.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)456.83563.97635.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.851,632.851,632.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.350.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.350.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.44%4.44%5.44%
Fair Value$23.38$38.14$77.85
Upside / Downside10.93%80.95%269.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,428.631,492.011,558.211,627.341,699.541,774.941,828.19
Payout Ratio48.02%56.42%64.81%73.21%81.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)686.07841.771,009.941,191.361,386.901,597.451,691.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate3.44%4.44%5.44%
Year 1 PV (M)782.59790.15797.72
Year 2 PV (M)872.91889.87906.99
Year 3 PV (M)957.32985.361,013.94
Year 4 PV (M)1,036.091,076.751,118.58
Year 5 PV (M)1,109.481,164.151,220.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,245.9934,884.4436,586.86
Equity Value (M)38,004.3939,790.7241,645.05
Shares Outstanding (M)1,632.851,632.851,632.85
Fair Value$23.27$24.37$25.50
Upside / Downside10.41%15.60%20.99%

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