Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Meheco Group Co., Ltd. (600056.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.90 - $2.62$2.26
Multi-Stage$5.85 - $6.46$6.14
Blended Fair Value$4.20
Current Price$11.15
Upside-62.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.62%-6.11%0.230.150.420.260.200.310.260.220.120.11
YoY Growth--57.19%-64.49%58.07%33.56%-36.46%18.94%16.13%81.97%11.68%-74.67%
Dividend Yield--2.22%1.33%3.03%1.01%1.99%2.88%2.28%1.32%0.73%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)543.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)387.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.6267.8940.73
Cash Retained (M)155.54155.54155.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.62-67.89-40.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.9287.65114.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,496.051,496.051,496.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-7.62%-6.62%-5.62%
Fair Value$1.90$2.26$2.62
Upside / Downside-82.96%-79.72%-76.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)543.08507.12473.53442.17412.89385.54397.11
Payout Ratio71.36%75.09%78.82%82.54%86.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)387.54380.78373.22364.98356.20346.99367.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-7.62%-6.62%-5.62%
Year 1 PV (M)353.73357.56361.39
Year 2 PV (M)322.07329.08336.17
Year 3 PV (M)292.59302.20312.01
Year 4 PV (M)265.27276.94289.00
Year 5 PV (M)240.04253.32267.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,271.167,673.338,093.10
Equity Value (M)8,744.869,192.439,658.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,496.051,496.051,496.05
Fair Value$5.85$6.14$6.46
Upside / Downside-47.58%-44.89%-42.10%

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