Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Otani Kogyo Co.,Ltd. (5939.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,502.22 - $3,582.26$3,031.29
Multi-Stage$3,844.18 - $4,227.79$4,032.25
Blended Fair Value$3,531.77
Current Price$5,450.00
Upside-35.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS-0.13%0.00%29.8929.9430.0229.9229.8330.080.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.15%-0.28%0.33%0.29%-0.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.42%0.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)282.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)259.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.5635.3521.21
Cash Retained (M)259.54259.54259.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.56-35.35-21.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)202.98224.19238.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.780.780.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share260.51287.73305.88
LTM Dividend per Share29.8429.8429.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share260.51287.73305.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend290.35317.57335.72
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2,502.22$3,031.29$3,582.26
Upside / Downside-54.09%-44.38%-34.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)282.79279.97277.17274.39271.65268.93277.00
Payout Ratio8.22%24.58%40.93%57.29%73.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.2568.81113.45157.20200.05242.04256.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)62.2862.9163.55
Year 2 PV (M)92.9494.8496.77
Year 3 PV (M)116.55120.15123.83
Year 4 PV (M)134.24139.81145.54
Year 5 PV (M)147.00154.65162.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,442.272,569.442,701.86
Equity Value (M)2,995.273,141.813,294.17
Shares Outstanding (M)0.780.780.78
Fair Value$3,844.18$4,032.25$4,227.79
Upside / Downside-29.46%-26.01%-22.43%

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