Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sunway Construction Group Bhd (5263.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.14 - $41.91$20.75
Multi-Stage$6.20 - $6.79$6.49
Blended Fair Value$13.62
Current Price$6.00
Upside126.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.13%-12.23%0.090.050.070.040.050.070.070.050.060.05
YoY Growth--63.64%-21.43%75.00%-15.79%-32.22%-6.77%36.33%-15.41%20.06%-83.64%
Dividend Yield--2.03%1.89%4.20%2.32%2.63%4.63%3.86%2.67%3.69%3.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)275.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)174.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.0534.4120.64
Cash Retained (M)100.75100.75100.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.05-34.41-20.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.7066.3480.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,293.661,293.661,293.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Fair Value$9.14$20.75$41.91
Upside / Downside52.28%245.83%598.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)275.25290.31306.20322.97340.64359.29370.07
Payout Ratio63.40%68.72%74.04%79.36%84.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)174.50199.50226.71256.30288.46323.36342.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Year 1 PV (M)185.69187.46189.24
Year 2 PV (M)196.40200.18204.00
Year 3 PV (M)206.67212.66218.76
Year 4 PV (M)216.49224.90233.55
Year 5 PV (M)225.88236.90248.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,991.477,332.547,686.80
Equity Value (M)8,022.608,394.658,780.70
Shares Outstanding (M)1,293.661,293.661,293.66
Fair Value$6.20$6.49$6.79
Upside / Downside3.36%8.15%13.12%

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