Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Makkah Construction & Development Company (4100.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$169.97 - $465.55$436.28
Multi-Stage$70.98 - $77.64$74.25
Blended Fair Value$255.27
Current Price$92.00
Upside177.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222022202120202019201820172016
DPS-5.11%-5.06%1.280.850.000.001.221.661.700.002.112.14
YoY Growth--51.23%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-26.71%-2.28%0.00%-100.00%-1.45%-0.52%
Dividend Yield--1.18%1.00%0.00%0.00%2.34%3.24%2.67%0.00%2.30%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)448.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)296.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)152.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.8056.1233.67
Cash Retained (M)152.45152.45152.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.80-56.12-33.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.6596.33118.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)191.37191.37191.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.500.62
LTM Dividend per Share1.551.551.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.500.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.882.052.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.26%6.26%7.26%
Fair Value$169.97$436.28$465.55
Upside / Downside84.75%374.22%406.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)448.99477.09506.94538.67572.37608.19626.44
Payout Ratio66.05%70.84%75.63%80.42%85.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)296.54337.95383.39433.19487.72547.37579.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.26%6.26%7.26%
Year 1 PV (M)314.58317.56320.55
Year 2 PV (M)332.18338.52344.93
Year 3 PV (M)349.37359.42369.66
Year 4 PV (M)366.14380.25394.77
Year 5 PV (M)382.50401.02420.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,839.0612,412.2313,007.39
Equity Value (M)13,583.8214,209.0014,857.54
Shares Outstanding (M)191.37191.37191.37
Fair Value$70.98$74.25$77.64
Upside / Downside-22.84%-19.29%-15.61%

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