Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Saudi Ground Services Company (4031.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.62 - $14.53$12.60
Multi-Stage$28.21 - $31.16$29.66
Blended Fair Value$21.13
Current Price$46.56
Upside-54.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.15%-5.50%1.000.000.000.000.001.801.953.251.812.14
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-7.69%-40.00%79.56%-15.31%21.76%
Dividend Yield--1.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%7.85%6.70%8.85%3.53%5.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)394.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)188.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)205.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.8549.2829.57
Cash Retained (M)205.67205.67205.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.85-49.28-29.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.81156.38176.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)188.00188.00188.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.830.94
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.830.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.841.94
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-7.50%-6.50%-5.50%
Fair Value$10.62$12.60$14.53
Upside / Downside-77.19%-72.93%-68.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)394.26368.63344.67322.26301.31281.72290.17
Payout Ratio47.84%56.27%64.70%73.13%81.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)188.60207.42223.00235.68245.77253.55268.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-7.50%-6.50%-5.50%
Year 1 PV (M)191.58193.65195.72
Year 2 PV (M)190.24194.37198.55
Year 3 PV (M)185.69191.78198.00
Year 4 PV (M)178.85186.71194.83
Year 5 PV (M)170.42179.83189.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,386.834,629.144,882.04
Equity Value (M)5,303.605,575.485,858.79
Shares Outstanding (M)188.00188.00188.00
Fair Value$28.21$29.66$31.16
Upside / Downside-39.41%-36.30%-33.07%

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