Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. (3898.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$260.36 - $550.67$516.06
Multi-Stage$83.26 - $91.17$87.14
Blended Fair Value$301.60
Current Price$28.83
Upside946.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.42%10.59%0.810.580.460.470.380.390.400.390.420.36
YoY Growth--39.29%25.10%-1.98%23.44%-2.85%-0.55%2.37%-6.96%16.70%20.88%
Dividend Yield--2.69%2.31%1.55%1.90%1.57%1.88%1.05%1.27%1.14%0.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,867.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,128.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,738.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)773.45483.41290.04
Cash Retained (M)2,738.472,738.472,738.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-773.45-483.41-290.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,965.022,255.062,448.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,396.661,396.661,396.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.411.611.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.411.611.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.222.422.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$260.36$516.06$550.67
Upside / Downside803.08%1,690.01%1,810.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,867.254,118.624,386.334,671.444,975.085,298.465,457.42
Payout Ratio29.19%41.35%53.51%65.68%77.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,128.781,703.072,347.253,067.983,872.494,768.625,048.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,585.631,600.661,615.69
Year 2 PV (M)2,034.702,073.462,112.58
Year 3 PV (M)2,476.082,547.162,619.59
Year 4 PV (M)2,909.873,021.783,136.88
Year 5 PV (M)3,336.163,497.303,664.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)103,946.84108,967.52114,180.34
Equity Value (M)116,289.31121,707.88127,329.69
Shares Outstanding (M)1,396.661,396.661,396.66
Fair Value$83.26$87.14$91.17
Upside / Downside188.81%202.26%216.22%

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