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Definitive Analysis

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Vinx Corp. (3784.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,505.75 - $5,752.97$3,656.77
Multi-Stage$1,748.71 - $1,912.25$1,828.99
Blended Fair Value$2,742.88
Current Price$1,289.00
Upside112.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS23.69%23.33%30.4714.4914.497.6910.5310.5310.5012.997.013.74
YoY Growth--110.33%0.00%88.33%-26.93%0.02%0.23%-19.18%85.30%87.35%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.27%1.25%1.31%1.11%0.85%2.18%3.33%2.73%1.55%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,053.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,968.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)410.63256.64153.98
Cash Retained (M)1,968.081,968.081,968.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-410.63-256.64-153.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,557.451,711.441,814.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.8316.8316.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share92.52101.67107.77
LTM Dividend per Share5.055.055.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share92.52101.67107.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend97.57106.72112.82
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,505.75$3,656.77$5,752.97
Upside / Downside94.39%183.69%346.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,053.132,186.582,328.712,480.082,641.282,812.962,897.35
Payout Ratio4.14%21.31%38.49%55.66%72.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.05466.05896.211,380.341,923.602,531.672,680.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)421.20425.19429.19
Year 2 PV (M)732.04745.98760.05
Year 3 PV (M)1,018.981,048.231,078.03
Year 4 PV (M)1,283.381,332.741,383.50
Year 5 PV (M)1,526.541,600.271,676.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,454.8325,636.0126,862.39
Equity Value (M)29,436.9630,788.4132,189.99
Shares Outstanding (M)16.8316.8316.83
Fair Value$1,748.71$1,828.99$1,912.25
Upside / Downside35.66%41.89%48.35%

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