Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Holly Futures Co., Ltd. (3678.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.30 - $0.78$0.46
Multi-Stage$0.21 - $0.23$0.22
Blended Fair Value$0.34
Current Price$4.68
Upside-92.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-38.53%-19.20%0.010.030.010.050.010.070.070.050.050.03
YoY Growth---80.92%465.31%-88.46%426.76%-86.62%1.38%33.33%20.00%33.38%-37.50%
Dividend Yield--0.27%2.71%0.36%5.18%1.32%10.02%6.62%4.67%2.97%2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.681.681.01
Cash Retained (M)8.738.738.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.68-1.68-1.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.047.057.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,004.991,004.991,004.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$0.30$0.46$0.78
Upside / Downside-93.49%-90.14%-83.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.4214.2915.2216.2117.2618.3918.94
Payout Ratio34.97%45.98%56.98%67.99%78.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.696.578.6711.0213.6416.5517.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.20%9.20%9.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5.966.026.07
Year 2 PV (M)7.147.277.41
Year 3 PV (M)8.238.468.71
Year 4 PV (M)9.249.599.96
Year 5 PV (M)10.1710.6611.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)173.66182.05190.75
Equity Value (M)214.39224.05234.07
Shares Outstanding (M)1,004.991,004.991,004.99
Fair Value$0.21$0.22$0.23
Upside / Downside-95.44%-95.24%-95.02%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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