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Definitive Analysis

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AGS Corporation (3648.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,485.37 - $2,807.49$2,020.64
Multi-Stage$1,480.26 - $1,621.03$1,549.34
Blended Fair Value$1,784.99
Current Price$958.00
Upside86.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.63%5.41%16.1012.5611.6513.7711.6611.6811.6811.6411.1110.07
YoY Growth--28.20%7.78%-15.37%18.07%-0.17%0.04%0.30%4.78%10.34%5.89%
Dividend Yield--1.68%1.19%1.53%1.88%1.31%1.39%1.76%1.34%1.38%2.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,601.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)265.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,335.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)320.37200.23120.14
Cash Retained (M)1,335.921,335.921,335.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-320.37-200.23-120.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,015.551,135.691,215.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.7916.7916.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share60.4867.6472.41
LTM Dividend per Share15.8415.8415.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share60.4867.6472.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend76.3283.4788.24
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate3.41%4.41%5.41%
Fair Value$1,485.37$2,020.64$2,807.49
Upside / Downside55.05%110.92%193.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,601.861,672.461,746.171,823.121,903.471,987.362,046.98
Payout Ratio16.60%31.28%45.96%60.64%75.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)265.94523.17802.561,105.551,433.701,788.631,893.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate3.41%4.41%5.41%
Year 1 PV (M)476.60481.21485.81
Year 2 PV (M)666.03678.98692.04
Year 3 PV (M)835.81860.30885.25
Year 4 PV (M)987.411,026.161,066.04
Year 5 PV (M)1,122.191,177.511,234.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,767.3721,791.1322,854.88
Equity Value (M)24,855.4126,015.2827,219.03
Shares Outstanding (M)16.7916.7916.79
Fair Value$1,480.26$1,549.34$1,621.03
Upside / Downside54.52%61.73%69.21%

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