Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Advanced Ceramic X Corporation (3152.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.05 - $131.79$108.11
Multi-Stage$186.06 - $204.83$195.26
Blended Fair Value$151.69
Current Price$123.00
Upside23.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-17.92%0.00%3.673.587.9810.788.419.860.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--2.51%-55.12%-25.93%28.11%-14.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.67%1.52%3.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)697.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)253.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)443.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.5087.1952.31
Cash Retained (M)443.52443.52443.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.50-87.19-52.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)304.02356.33391.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)69.1769.1769.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.405.155.66
LTM Dividend per Share3.673.673.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.405.155.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.078.829.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.21%-1.21%-0.21%
Fair Value$87.05$108.11$131.79
Upside / Downside-29.23%-12.10%7.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)697.50689.06680.72672.49664.35656.32676.01
Payout Ratio36.41%47.13%57.85%68.57%79.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)253.98324.76393.78461.09526.72590.69625.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.21%-1.21%-0.21%
Year 1 PV (M)300.85303.93307.01
Year 2 PV (M)337.95344.89351.91
Year 3 PV (M)366.59377.95389.54
Year 4 PV (M)387.94404.05420.66
Year 5 PV (M)403.03424.06445.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,073.5811,651.4712,253.24
Equity Value (M)12,869.9313,506.3514,168.31
Shares Outstanding (M)69.1769.1769.17
Fair Value$186.06$195.26$204.83
Upside / Downside51.27%58.75%66.53%

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