Definitive Analysis
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Yanbu Cement Company (3060.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.79 - $5.23$4.51
Multi-Stage$12.03 - $13.29$12.65
Blended Fair Value$8.58
Current Price$20.32
Upside-57.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.03%-9.77%1.241.491.503.482.241.251.742.734.483.99
YoY Growth---16.69%-0.66%-56.84%55.75%79.49%-28.56%-36.15%-39.02%12.42%14.51%
Dividend Yield--5.20%5.04%4.30%8.26%5.19%4.85%6.20%8.33%12.21%8.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.1113.828.29
Cash Retained (M)31.5531.5531.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.11-13.82-8.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.4317.7223.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)157.49157.49157.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.110.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.110.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-7.42%-6.42%-5.42%
Fair Value$3.79$4.51$5.23
Upside / Downside-81.37%-77.78%-74.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.57103.4896.8490.6284.8179.3681.74
Payout Ratio71.47%75.18%78.88%82.59%86.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.0377.7976.3974.8473.1871.4375.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-7.42%-6.42%-5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)72.3973.1773.95
Year 2 PV (M)66.1467.5869.03
Year 3 PV (M)60.3162.2864.30
Year 4 PV (M)54.8757.2859.77
Year 5 PV (M)49.8452.5955.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,591.021,678.821,770.45
Equity Value (M)1,894.561,991.722,092.96
Shares Outstanding (M)157.49157.49157.49
Fair Value$12.03$12.65$13.29
Upside / Downside-40.80%-37.76%-34.60%

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