Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu TongLin Electric Co.,Ltd. (301168.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SolarSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.58 - $16.70$10.91
Multi-Stage$5.67 - $6.18$5.92
Blended Fair Value$8.42
Current Price$42.54
Upside-80.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS134.81%8.31%0.280.110.070.000.000.000.020.270.190.13
YoY Growth--153.74%53.76%40,748.54%0.00%-100.00%-77.06%-93.66%38.42%51.09%2.39%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.27%0.13%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.43%0.31%0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.065.663.40
Cash Retained (M)24.2724.2724.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.06-5.66-3.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.2118.6120.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)117.13117.13117.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.58$10.91$16.70
Upside / Downside-82.17%-74.35%-60.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.2848.2251.3554.6958.2562.0363.89
Payout Ratio46.40%55.12%63.84%72.56%81.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.0126.5832.7839.6847.3455.8359.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23.9824.2024.43
Year 2 PV (M)26.6827.1927.70
Year 3 PV (M)29.1429.9830.83
Year 4 PV (M)31.3632.5733.81
Year 5 PV (M)33.3734.9836.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)519.35544.43570.48
Equity Value (M)663.88693.36723.91
Shares Outstanding (M)117.13117.13117.13
Fair Value$5.67$5.92$6.18
Upside / Downside-86.68%-86.08%-85.47%

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