Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co., Ltd. (300990.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.88 - $307.80$111.23
Multi-Stage$32.42 - $35.45$33.90
Blended Fair Value$72.57
Current Price$85.00
Upside-14.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS34.00%0.00%0.490.440.300.240.000.110.110.090.000.00
YoY Growth--12.50%44.00%25.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%29.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.18%1.17%0.69%0.97%0.00%0.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)263.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)179.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.7933.0019.80
Cash Retained (M)179.27179.27179.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.79-33.00-19.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.48146.28159.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)170.56170.56170.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.860.94
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.860.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.88$111.23$307.80
Upside / Downside-33.09%30.86%262.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)263.97281.13299.40318.87339.59361.67372.52
Payout Ratio32.09%43.67%55.25%66.83%78.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.70122.77165.43213.11266.30325.50344.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)112.82113.89114.96
Year 2 PV (M)139.70142.36145.05
Year 3 PV (M)165.39170.13174.97
Year 4 PV (M)189.92197.22204.73
Year 5 PV (M)213.32223.63234.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,707.994,935.395,171.49
Equity Value (M)5,529.145,782.626,045.53
Shares Outstanding (M)170.56170.56170.56
Fair Value$32.42$33.90$35.45
Upside / Downside-61.86%-60.11%-58.30%

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