Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ActBlue Co., Ltd. (300816.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.28 - $136.68$48.80
Multi-Stage$78.82 - $87.09$82.87
Blended Fair Value$65.84
Current Price$37.18
Upside77.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.14%0.00%0.230.230.400.430.290.030.470.040.000.02
YoY Growth---1.06%-42.44%-6.72%48.06%776.74%-92.97%1,178.54%8,356.59%-97.88%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.72%1.10%1.20%1.30%0.34%0.09%1.60%0.12%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.489.055.43
Cash Retained (M)49.3549.3549.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.48-9.05-5.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.8740.3043.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)79.5279.5279.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.510.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.510.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.84
WACC / Discount Rate0.62%0.62%0.62%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$27.28$48.80$136.68
Upside / Downside-26.62%31.25%267.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.4071.6770.9670.2569.5468.8570.91
Payout Ratio31.83%43.46%55.10%66.73%78.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.0431.1539.0946.8854.5061.9665.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.62%0.62%0.62%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)30.6530.9631.27
Year 2 PV (M)37.8438.6239.40
Year 3 PV (M)44.6446.0247.43
Year 4 PV (M)51.0653.1855.36
Year 5 PV (M)57.1260.0963.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,046.296,361.136,688.96
Equity Value (M)6,267.596,589.996,925.60
Shares Outstanding (M)79.5279.5279.52
Fair Value$78.82$82.87$87.09
Upside / Downside111.99%122.90%134.25%

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