Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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POCO Holding Co., Ltd. (300811.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.12 - $87.75$49.55
Multi-Stage$21.58 - $23.59$22.57
Blended Fair Value$36.06
Current Price$84.32
Upside-57.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS64.80%60.06%0.160.080.100.070.070.010.020.010.010.00
YoY Growth--100.80%-24.87%41.20%3.53%451.16%-36.28%61.33%71.70%160.91%97.19%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.18%0.29%0.24%0.53%0.09%0.24%0.00%0.09%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)382.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)59.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)323.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.5647.8528.71
Cash Retained (M)323.70323.70323.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.56-47.85-28.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)247.14275.85294.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)286.11286.11286.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.860.961.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.860.961.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.12$49.55$87.75
Upside / Downside-61.91%-41.23%4.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)382.82407.71434.21462.43492.49524.50540.24
Payout Ratio15.44%30.35%45.27%60.18%75.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)59.12123.76196.55278.28369.80472.05499.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)112.46113.52114.59
Year 2 PV (M)162.29165.38168.50
Year 3 PV (M)208.79214.79220.89
Year 4 PV (M)252.13261.82271.80
Year 5 PV (M)292.45306.57321.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,145.945,394.495,652.56
Equity Value (M)6,174.066,456.586,749.58
Shares Outstanding (M)286.11286.11286.11
Fair Value$21.58$22.57$23.59
Upside / Downside-74.41%-73.24%-72.02%

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