Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sinofibers Technology Co.,Ltd. (300777.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.97 - $38.37$25.57
Multi-Stage$13.18 - $14.39$13.77
Blended Fair Value$19.67
Current Price$35.25
Upside-44.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.36%42.31%0.120.250.080.100.070.010.020.020.000.01
YoY Growth---52.42%201.20%-13.13%44.58%436.11%-46.87%1.64%923.65%-82.93%274.08%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.83%0.16%0.19%0.15%0.04%0.27%0.26%0.03%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)414.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)318.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)82.9951.8731.12
Cash Retained (M)318.48318.48318.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-82.99-51.87-31.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)235.49266.61287.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)436.91436.91436.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.610.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.610.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.97$25.57$38.37
Upside / Downside-49.03%-27.46%8.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)414.96441.93470.65501.25533.83568.53585.58
Payout Ratio23.25%36.60%49.95%63.30%76.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.48161.75235.09317.29409.18511.67541.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)145.71147.09148.48
Year 2 PV (M)190.79194.43198.10
Year 3 PV (M)231.98238.64245.42
Year 4 PV (M)269.50279.87290.53
Year 5 PV (M)303.60318.27333.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,616.914,839.915,071.44
Equity Value (M)5,758.506,018.216,287.46
Shares Outstanding (M)436.91436.91436.91
Fair Value$13.18$13.77$14.39
Upside / Downside-62.61%-60.92%-59.18%

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