Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Zhilai Sci and Tech Co., Ltd. (300771.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.97 - $9.24$6.71
Multi-Stage$4.56 - $4.98$4.77
Blended Fair Value$5.74
Current Price$12.39
Upside-53.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.27%43.16%0.110.330.230.280.170.130.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---65.52%44.59%-18.39%60.00%30.10%2,677.75%51.01%-26.67%28.51%8.02%
Dividend Yield--1.07%3.27%1.59%2.15%0.90%0.55%0.03%0.02%0.02%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.959.355.61
Cash Retained (M)37.9237.9237.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.95-9.35-5.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.9628.5732.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)230.54230.54230.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate4.30%5.30%6.30%
Fair Value$4.97$6.71$9.24
Upside / Downside-59.93%-45.80%-25.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74.7778.7382.9187.3091.9396.8199.71
Payout Ratio49.28%57.43%65.57%73.71%81.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.8545.2154.3664.3575.2587.1392.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate4.30%5.30%6.30%
Year 1 PV (M)40.8041.2041.59
Year 2 PV (M)44.2845.1345.99
Year 3 PV (M)47.3048.6850.08
Year 4 PV (M)49.9251.8653.86
Year 5 PV (M)52.1654.7157.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)817.58857.53899.02
Equity Value (M)1,052.041,099.101,147.90
Shares Outstanding (M)230.54230.54230.54
Fair Value$4.56$4.77$4.98
Upside / Downside-63.17%-61.52%-59.81%

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