Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Longli Technology Co.,Ltd (300752.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.12 - $9.41$6.89
Multi-Stage$4.35 - $4.76$4.55
Blended Fair Value$5.72
Current Price$21.95
Upside-73.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-46.32%14.12%0.010.030.000.040.080.330.000.000.000.06
YoY Growth---49.86%2,895.27%-97.75%-44.68%-76.12%10,172.73%128.85%-49.45%-95.24%1,384.76%
Dividend Yield--0.07%0.22%0.01%0.22%0.36%2.27%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)75.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)75.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.129.455.67
Cash Retained (M)75.0775.0775.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.12-9.45-5.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)59.9565.6269.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)221.79221.79221.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Fair Value$5.12$6.89$9.41
Upside / Downside-76.69%-68.63%-57.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)75.6179.7184.0288.5893.3898.44101.39
Payout Ratio0.71%18.57%36.42%54.28%72.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.5314.8030.6148.0867.3688.5993.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate4.42%5.42%6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)13.3313.4513.58
Year 2 PV (M)24.8225.3025.78
Year 3 PV (M)35.1236.1437.18
Year 4 PV (M)44.3146.0447.81
Year 5 PV (M)52.4855.0557.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)795.44834.27874.59
Equity Value (M)965.511,010.241,056.65
Shares Outstanding (M)221.79221.79221.79
Fair Value$4.35$4.55$4.76
Upside / Downside-80.17%-79.25%-78.30%

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