Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Chengdu Xiling Power Science & Technology Incorporated Company (300733.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.53 - $15.84$9.71
Multi-Stage$4.52 - $4.94$4.73
Blended Fair Value$7.22
Current Price$19.10
Upside-62.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.18%12.43%0.050.060.070.020.050.070.080.010.020.10
YoY Growth---27.53%-6.52%228.62%-61.31%-20.00%-16.67%615.32%-41.89%-80.75%602.41%
Dividend Yield--0.29%0.63%0.47%0.15%0.51%1.11%0.84%0.07%0.10%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)89.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.8511.156.69
Cash Retained (M)79.8179.8179.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.85-11.15-6.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.9768.6673.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)296.22296.22296.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.53$9.71$15.84
Upside / Downside-65.79%-49.16%-17.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)89.2395.03101.21107.78114.79122.25125.92
Payout Ratio10.55%26.44%42.33%58.22%74.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.4225.1342.8462.7585.07110.03116.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22.7522.9723.19
Year 2 PV (M)35.1335.8036.48
Year 3 PV (M)46.6047.9449.30
Year 4 PV (M)57.2159.4161.67
Year 5 PV (M)67.0070.2473.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,109.911,163.521,219.18
Equity Value (M)1,338.621,399.881,463.42
Shares Outstanding (M)296.22296.22296.22
Fair Value$4.52$4.73$4.94
Upside / Downside-76.34%-75.26%-74.13%

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