Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tecnon Electronics Co., Ltd. (300650.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.61 - $50.21$47.05
Multi-Stage$28.55 - $31.33$29.91
Blended Fair Value$38.48
Current Price$21.74
Upside77.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.01%26.77%0.140.140.220.080.100.090.090.010.010.00
YoY Growth---1.36%-36.95%193.60%-26.11%19.41%-3.97%1,028.14%8.20%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.02%1.29%1.75%0.48%0.87%1.03%0.92%0.05%0.11%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.926.824.09
Cash Retained (M)36.1236.1236.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.92-6.82-4.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.2029.2932.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)216.27216.27216.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate2.63%2.63%2.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.61$47.05$50.21
Upside / Downside96.02%116.43%130.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.6058.1561.9365.9570.2474.8177.05
Payout Ratio33.85%45.08%56.31%67.54%78.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.4826.2134.8744.5555.3367.3271.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.63%2.63%2.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.3025.5425.78
Year 2 PV (M)32.4933.1133.73
Year 3 PV (M)40.0641.2142.38
Year 4 PV (M)48.0349.8851.78
Year 5 PV (M)56.4159.1461.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,971.756,260.196,559.66
Equity Value (M)6,174.046,469.066,775.30
Shares Outstanding (M)216.27216.27216.27
Fair Value$28.55$29.91$31.33
Upside / Downside31.31%37.59%44.10%

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