Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Fullhan Microelectronics Co., Ltd. (300613.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.84 - $24.40$16.64
Multi-Stage$8.75 - $9.56$9.15
Blended Fair Value$12.89
Current Price$52.38
Upside-75.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.49%19.28%0.150.220.200.050.040.020.050.050.000.00
YoY Growth---31.82%10.55%327.81%28.92%51.50%-47.75%-5.06%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.26%0.64%0.28%0.08%0.07%0.09%0.21%0.14%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)154.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)124.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.8019.2511.55
Cash Retained (M)124.52124.52124.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.80-19.25-11.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)93.72105.27112.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)235.17235.17235.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.61
WACC / Discount Rate10.17%10.17%10.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.84$16.64$24.40
Upside / Downside-77.40%-68.24%-53.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)154.01164.02174.68186.04198.13211.01217.34
Payout Ratio19.15%33.32%47.49%61.66%75.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.4954.6582.95114.71150.24189.91201.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.17%10.17%10.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)49.1449.6050.07
Year 2 PV (M)67.0768.3569.64
Year 3 PV (M)83.3985.7988.23
Year 4 PV (M)98.21101.99105.87
Year 5 PV (M)111.63117.02122.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,648.441,728.061,810.73
Equity Value (M)2,057.882,150.812,247.15
Shares Outstanding (M)235.17235.17235.17
Fair Value$8.75$9.15$9.56
Upside / Downside-83.29%-82.54%-81.76%

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