Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co.,Ltd (300604.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.77 - $64.64$42.62
Multi-Stage$21.14 - $23.12$22.11
Blended Fair Value$32.36
Current Price$99.62
Upside-67.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.59%72.82%0.160.140.100.060.000.030.020.020.000.00
YoY Growth--13.93%30.62%80.70%1,290.78%-83.68%36.02%17.04%0.00%-100.00%511.58%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.41%0.22%0.16%0.03%0.21%0.17%0.18%0.00%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)966.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)934.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)193.29120.8072.48
Cash Retained (M)934.76934.76934.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-193.29-120.80-72.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)741.47813.96862.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)626.51626.51626.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.181.301.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.181.301.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.231.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.77$42.62$64.64
Upside / Downside-70.11%-57.22%-35.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)966.441,029.251,096.161,167.411,243.291,324.101,363.82
Payout Ratio3.28%20.62%37.97%55.31%72.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.68212.25416.17645.70903.321,191.691,261.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)191.37193.18195.00
Year 2 PV (M)338.30344.74351.25
Year 3 PV (M)473.23486.81500.66
Year 4 PV (M)596.89619.84643.45
Year 5 PV (M)709.95744.24779.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,935.2611,463.4412,011.83
Equity Value (M)13,244.9913,852.2514,482.02
Shares Outstanding (M)626.51626.51626.51
Fair Value$21.14$22.11$23.12
Upside / Downside-78.78%-77.81%-76.80%

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