Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Xinguang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (300519.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.96 - $4.44$3.66
Multi-Stage$7.27 - $8.00$7.63
Blended Fair Value$5.64
Current Price$15.63
Upside-63.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.92%0.65%0.400.490.590.590.440.300.250.250.000.37
YoY Growth---20.00%-16.67%0.00%33.33%50.00%20.00%0.00%87,616.68%-99.92%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.89%3.77%3.36%2.55%3.00%2.16%1.54%1.11%0.00%4.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.597.244.35
Cash Retained (M)9.949.949.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.59-7.24-4.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.642.705.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)161.81161.81161.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-2.87%-1.87%-0.87%
Fair Value$2.96$3.66$4.44
Upside / Downside-81.07%-76.59%-71.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.9456.8655.8054.7553.7352.7254.31
Payout Ratio82.84%84.27%85.70%87.14%88.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.0047.9247.8247.7147.5947.4550.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-2.87%-1.87%-0.87%
Year 1 PV (M)44.5244.9845.44
Year 2 PV (M)41.2842.1343.00
Year 3 PV (M)38.2739.4640.68
Year 4 PV (M)35.4636.9438.47
Year 5 PV (M)32.8534.5836.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)984.491,036.221,090.10
Equity Value (M)1,176.871,234.321,294.07
Shares Outstanding (M)161.81161.81161.81
Fair Value$7.27$7.63$8.00
Upside / Downside-53.47%-51.19%-48.83%

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