Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hubei Jiuzhiyang Infrared System Co., Ltd (300516.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.41 - $4.19$3.17
Multi-Stage$2.36 - $2.58$2.47
Blended Fair Value$2.82
Current Price$36.20
Upside-92.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.97%14.87%0.350.120.120.100.070.050.070.240.000.10
YoY Growth--181.60%5.04%15.53%47.14%36.36%-30.63%-69.17%0.00%-100.00%17.61%
Dividend Yield--1.03%0.44%0.40%0.36%0.28%0.18%0.28%0.81%0.00%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.514.072.44
Cash Retained (M)20.1520.1520.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.51-4.07-2.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.6416.0817.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)180.05180.05180.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Fair Value$2.41$3.17$4.19
Upside / Downside-93.34%-91.23%-88.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32.5734.1335.7637.4639.2541.1342.36
Payout Ratio38.13%48.50%58.88%69.25%79.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.4216.5521.0525.9431.2537.0139.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Year 1 PV (M)14.9015.0515.19
Year 2 PV (M)17.0717.4017.73
Year 3 PV (M)18.9419.4920.06
Year 4 PV (M)20.5421.3522.17
Year 5 PV (M)21.9122.9824.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)331.33347.60364.51
Equity Value (M)424.69443.88463.77
Shares Outstanding (M)180.05180.05180.05
Fair Value$2.36$2.47$2.58
Upside / Downside-93.48%-93.19%-92.88%

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