Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Newamstar Packaging Machinery Co.,Ltd (300509.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.51 - $5.70$4.50
Multi-Stage$7.16 - $7.87$7.51
Blended Fair Value$6.00
Current Price$9.08
Upside-33.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.22%0.00%0.130.120.120.140.130.130.160.120.080.00
YoY Growth--13.68%2.63%-15.49%1.13%6.53%-20.83%33.33%50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.74%2.13%1.80%1.92%2.20%2.10%1.91%1.50%0.59%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.5012.197.31
Cash Retained (M)32.7532.7532.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.50-12.19-7.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.2520.5725.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)300.77300.77300.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.78%0.22%1.22%
Fair Value$3.51$4.50$5.70
Upside / Downside-61.31%-50.49%-37.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.5297.7397.9498.1598.3698.57101.53
Payout Ratio66.41%71.13%75.85%80.56%85.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.7669.5174.2879.0783.8888.7193.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.78%0.22%1.22%
Year 1 PV (M)64.5965.2465.90
Year 2 PV (M)64.1465.4466.76
Year 3 PV (M)63.4565.3967.36
Year 4 PV (M)62.5565.1167.74
Year 5 PV (M)61.4764.6367.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,838.511,933.052,031.44
Equity Value (M)2,154.722,258.872,367.12
Shares Outstanding (M)300.77300.77300.77
Fair Value$7.16$7.51$7.87
Upside / Downside-21.10%-17.29%-13.32%

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