Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fuxin Dare Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. (300473.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$93.85 - $110.66$103.66
Multi-Stage$63.21 - $69.64$66.36
Blended Fair Value$85.01
Current Price$31.26
Upside171.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.63%5.62%0.460.310.480.540.490.691.060.700.660.25
YoY Growth--48.81%-35.02%-11.82%9.75%-28.16%-34.95%51.16%5.63%169.12%-8.12%
Dividend Yield--1.63%1.85%2.67%2.94%2.92%2.94%2.74%1.74%1.06%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)87.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.5010.946.56
Cash Retained (M)64.7564.7564.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.50-10.94-6.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.2553.8258.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)150.95150.95150.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate-0.88%-0.88%-0.88%
Growth Rate1.17%2.17%3.17%
Fair Value$93.85$103.66$110.66
Upside / Downside200.22%231.61%253.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)87.5189.4191.3593.3495.3797.44100.36
Payout Ratio26.00%38.80%51.60%64.40%77.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.7634.7047.1460.1173.6287.6992.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.88%-0.88%-0.88%
Growth Rate1.17%2.17%3.17%
Year 1 PV (M)34.6635.0035.35
Year 2 PV (M)47.0547.9948.93
Year 3 PV (M)59.9461.7363.56
Year 4 PV (M)73.3476.2879.31
Year 5 PV (M)87.2791.6796.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,238.539,704.2310,188.51
Equity Value (M)9,540.7910,016.9010,511.91
Shares Outstanding (M)150.95150.95150.95
Fair Value$63.21$66.36$69.64
Upside / Downside102.20%112.29%122.78%

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