DDM Analysis: 300430.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.46 - $13.29	$8.12
Multi-Stage	$3.88 - $4.24	$4.06
Blended Fair Value	$6.09
Current Price	$19.95
Upside	-69.47%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	47.15%	26.55%	0.17	0.02	0.02	0.06	0.03	0.02	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	704.75%	0.10%	-67.07%	89.22%	37.44%	-37.24%	-0.44%	-5.54%	573.65%	-61.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.89%	0.12%	0.13%	0.47%	0.46%	0.32%	0.39%	0.26%	0.22%	0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	66.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	22.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)	43.54

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	13.26	8.29	4.97
Cash Retained (M)	43.54	43.54	43.54
(-) Cash Required (M)	-13.26	-8.29	-4.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)	30.27	35.25	38.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	264.49	264.49	264.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.13	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.13	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.20	0.22	0.23
WACC / Discount Rate	9.38%	9.38%	9.38%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$5.46	$8.12	$13.29
Upside / Downside	-72.63%	-59.28%	-33.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	66.32	70.63	75.22	80.11	85.32	90.86	93.59
Payout Ratio	34.35%	45.48%	56.61%	67.74%	78.87%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	22.78	32.13	42.59	54.27	67.29	81.78	86.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.38%	9.38%	9.38%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	29.10	29.37	29.65
Year 2 PV (M)	34.93	35.60	36.27
Year 3 PV (M)	40.32	41.47	42.65
Year 4 PV (M)	45.28	47.02	48.81
Year 5 PV (M)	49.84	52.24	54.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)	827.41	867.37	908.87
Equity Value (M)	1,026.87	1,073.08	1,120.99
Shares Outstanding (M)	264.49	264.49	264.49
Fair Value	$3.88	$4.06	$4.24
Upside / Downside	-80.54%	-79.66%	-78.75%

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Beijing Chieftain Control Engineering Technology Co., Ltd. (300430.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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