Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hanyu Group Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (300403.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.06 - $15.09$10.05
Multi-Stage$5.11 - $5.58$5.34
Blended Fair Value$7.70
Current Price$15.38
Upside-49.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.80%22.60%0.380.260.080.160.150.200.500.060.120.11
YoY Growth--46.79%225.00%-50.00%8.92%-26.55%-60.31%778.85%-53.09%10.00%123.33%
Dividend Yield--2.32%3.16%1.09%2.85%2.39%4.20%8.16%0.76%0.96%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)224.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)192.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.9028.0616.84
Cash Retained (M)192.62192.62192.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.90-28.06-16.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)147.72164.56175.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)602.82602.82602.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.06$10.05$15.09
Upside / Downside-54.12%-34.68%-1.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)224.49239.08254.62271.17288.80307.57316.80
Payout Ratio14.20%29.36%44.52%59.68%74.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.8770.19113.35161.83216.13276.81293.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)63.2363.8364.43
Year 2 PV (M)92.0093.7695.53
Year 3 PV (M)118.34121.74125.20
Year 4 PV (M)142.39147.87153.50
Year 5 PV (M)164.30172.24180.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,501.122,621.922,747.35
Equity Value (M)3,081.393,221.363,366.49
Shares Outstanding (M)602.82602.82602.82
Fair Value$5.11$5.34$5.58
Upside / Downside-66.76%-65.25%-63.69%

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