Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Nata Opto-electronic Material Co., Ltd. (300346.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.72 - $21.61$14.03
Multi-Stage$7.06 - $7.71$7.38
Blended Fair Value$10.70
Current Price$43.42
Upside-75.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.40%11.26%0.090.100.060.040.030.040.030.020.030.03
YoY Growth---10.44%82.40%43.87%33.25%-31.77%41.67%100.00%-40.00%-20.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.31%0.40%0.19%0.13%0.13%0.23%0.42%0.18%0.28%0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)306.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)225.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.2338.2722.96
Cash Retained (M)225.73225.73225.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.23-38.27-22.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)164.50187.46202.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)624.36624.36624.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.72$14.03$21.61
Upside / Downside-77.61%-67.68%-50.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)306.16326.06347.25369.82393.86419.46432.04
Payout Ratio26.27%39.02%51.76%64.51%77.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.43127.22179.74238.56304.27377.51399.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)114.82115.91117.00
Year 2 PV (M)146.42149.21152.02
Year 3 PV (M)175.40180.43185.56
Year 4 PV (M)201.91209.67217.66
Year 5 PV (M)226.10237.02248.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,542.513,713.623,891.27
Equity Value (M)4,407.154,605.864,811.87
Shares Outstanding (M)624.36624.36624.36
Fair Value$7.06$7.38$7.71
Upside / Downside-83.74%-83.01%-82.25%

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