Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Sinyang Semiconductor Materials Co., Ltd. (300236.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.22 - $164.59$125.20
Multi-Stage$20.51 - $22.43$21.45
Blended Fair Value$73.33
Current Price$62.15
Upside17.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.88%13.72%0.250.210.230.250.140.040.080.070.040.00
YoY Growth--17.20%-7.37%-9.02%87.40%221.75%-49.40%21.79%58.92%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.71%0.64%0.60%0.71%0.33%0.08%0.29%0.28%0.19%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)257.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)154.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.4132.1319.28
Cash Retained (M)154.87154.87154.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.41-32.13-19.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)103.46122.74135.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)310.61310.61310.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.77
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.22$125.20$164.59
Upside / Downside-30.45%101.45%164.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)257.07273.78291.57310.53330.71352.21362.77
Payout Ratio39.76%49.80%59.85%69.90%79.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.20136.35174.52217.06264.41316.99335.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)126.10127.29128.49
Year 2 PV (M)149.26152.10154.97
Year 3 PV (M)171.69176.61181.64
Year 4 PV (M)193.40200.84208.49
Year 5 PV (M)214.43224.79235.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,514.985,781.356,057.93
Equity Value (M)6,369.856,662.996,967.05
Shares Outstanding (M)310.61310.61310.61
Fair Value$20.51$21.45$22.43
Upside / Downside-67.00%-65.49%-63.91%

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