DDM Analysis: 300219.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.99 - $1.58	$1.25
Multi-Stage	$1.31 - $1.44	$1.37
Blended Fair Value	$1.31
Current Price	$7.45
Upside	-82.36%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-15.39%	29.68%	0.14	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.33	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	174.54%	21.06%	95.27%	26.49%	-94.72%	272.85%	85.24%	18.72%	113.95%	76.76%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.11%	0.73%	0.54%	0.23%	0.18%	4.71%	1.01%	0.39%	0.32%	0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	65.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	32.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)	33.37

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	13.20	8.25	4.95
Cash Retained (M)	33.37	33.37	33.37
(-) Cash Required (M)	-13.20	-8.25	-4.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	20.18	25.13	28.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	712.50	712.50	712.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.04	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.04	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.08	0.09
WACC / Discount Rate	8.90%	8.90%	8.90%
Growth Rate	1.29%	2.29%	3.29%
Fair Value	$0.99	$1.25	$1.58
Upside / Downside	-86.76%	-83.17%	-78.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	65.98	67.49	69.04	70.62	72.24	73.89	76.11
Payout Ratio	49.42%	57.53%	65.65%	73.77%	81.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	32.61	38.83	45.32	52.09	59.15	66.50	70.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.90%	8.90%	8.90%
Growth Rate	1.29%	2.29%	3.29%
Year 1 PV (M)	35.31	35.66	36.01
Year 2 PV (M)	37.47	38.22	38.97
Year 3 PV (M)	39.17	40.34	41.53
Year 4 PV (M)	40.44	42.06	43.73
Year 5 PV (M)	41.34	43.42	45.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)	741.69	779.03	817.86
Equity Value (M)	935.42	978.72	1,023.68
Shares Outstanding (M)	712.50	712.50	712.50
Fair Value	$1.31	$1.37	$1.44
Upside / Downside	-82.38%	-81.56%	-80.71%

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Hongli Zhihui Group Co.,Ltd. (300219.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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