Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co., Ltd (300196.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.45 - $30.35$20.45
Multi-Stage$20.79 - $22.83$21.79
Blended Fair Value$21.12
Current Price$14.89
Upside41.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.32%14.09%0.220.200.150.110.150.220.100.160.070.05
YoY Growth--9.66%33.33%43.23%-30.18%-30.51%107.82%-33.33%121.09%50.00%-20.00%
Dividend Yield--1.99%1.93%0.94%0.70%1.01%2.33%0.98%1.36%0.38%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)329.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)229.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.9541.2224.73
Cash Retained (M)229.39229.39229.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.95-41.22-24.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.44188.17204.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)407.30407.30407.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Fair Value$14.45$20.45$30.35
Upside / Downside-2.93%37.32%103.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)329.77338.99348.45358.18368.19378.47389.83
Payout Ratio30.44%42.35%54.26%66.18%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.38143.56189.08237.03287.51340.62360.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)133.67134.99136.30
Year 2 PV (M)163.93167.16170.43
Year 3 PV (M)191.34197.03202.84
Year 4 PV (M)216.10224.71233.59
Year 5 PV (M)238.38250.32262.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,522.857,899.708,291.51
Equity Value (M)8,466.278,873.929,297.40
Shares Outstanding (M)407.30407.30407.30
Fair Value$20.79$21.79$22.83
Upside / Downside39.60%46.32%53.30%

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