Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Kexin Mechanical and Electrical Equipment Co.,Ltd (300092.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.13 - $59.08$55.36
Multi-Stage$8.86 - $9.68$9.26
Blended Fair Value$32.31
Current Price$16.65
Upside94.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS78.53%31.44%0.230.200.050.040.020.010.010.000.000.01
YoY Growth--15.00%330.09%10.00%177.78%20.00%25.00%4,044.18%-76.66%-88.64%-38.18%
Dividend Yield--1.81%1.83%0.31%0.41%0.18%0.19%0.12%0.00%0.01%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2710.176.10
Cash Retained (M)16.1716.1716.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.27-10.17-6.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.106.0010.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)273.91273.91273.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.13$55.36$59.08
Upside / Downside44.92%232.51%254.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.3786.6692.2998.29104.68111.48114.82
Payout Ratio80.12%82.10%84.07%86.05%88.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.1971.1477.5984.5892.14100.33106.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)66.1566.7867.40
Year 2 PV (M)67.0868.3669.65
Year 3 PV (M)67.9969.9471.93
Year 4 PV (M)68.8771.5274.24
Year 5 PV (M)69.7373.1076.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,085.702,186.442,291.04
Equity Value (M)2,425.522,536.132,650.85
Shares Outstanding (M)273.91273.91273.91
Fair Value$8.86$9.26$9.68
Upside / Downside-46.82%-44.39%-41.88%

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