Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Alibaba Group Holding Limited (2RR.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.64 - $82.30$67.71
Multi-Stage$104.91 - $115.65$110.17
Blended Fair Value$88.94
Current Price$158.96
Upside-44.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%1.520.940.000.000.000.000.000.005.041.51
YoY Growth--62.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%233.68%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.51%1.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.98%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)123,354.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)123,334.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24,670.8015,419.259,251.55
Cash Retained (M)123,334.00123,334.00123,334.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-24,670.80-15,419.25-9,251.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)98,663.20107,914.75114,082.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,168.5019,168.5019,168.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.155.635.95
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.155.635.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.155.635.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.23%7.23%7.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$54.64$67.71$82.30
Upside / Downside-65.63%-57.41%-48.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)123,354.00122,120.46120,899.26119,690.26118,493.36117,308.43120,827.68
Payout Ratio0.02%18.01%36.01%54.01%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.0021,997.5243,535.4964,640.5085,319.06105,577.58111,765.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.23%7.23%7.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)20,306.5220,513.7320,720.94
Year 2 PV (M)37,099.4037,860.4038,629.11
Year 3 PV (M)50,849.8852,422.4454,027.10
Year 4 PV (M)61,957.3764,525.2167,172.06
Year 5 PV (M)70,775.0774,460.4978,297.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,769,907.531,862,070.731,958,033.87
Equity Value (M)2,010,895.772,111,852.992,216,880.95
Shares Outstanding (M)19,168.5019,168.5019,168.50
Fair Value$104.91$110.17$115.65
Upside / Downside-34.00%-30.69%-27.24%

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