Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lian Fa International Dining Business Corp. (2756.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.74 - $21.69$18.74
Multi-Stage$49.09 - $54.34$51.66
Blended Fair Value$35.20
Current Price$92.70
Upside-62.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-5.68%0.00%3.483.522.611.101.514.650.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---1.33%35.00%137.18%-27.00%-67.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.62%4.11%2.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)77.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.589.745.84
Cash Retained (M)46.3046.3046.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.58-9.74-5.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.7336.5740.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.1326.1326.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.181.401.55
LTM Dividend per Share1.211.211.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.181.401.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.382.612.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-7.68%-6.68%-5.68%
Fair Value$15.74$18.74$21.69
Upside / Downside-83.02%-79.79%-76.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)77.8872.6867.8363.3059.0755.1356.78
Payout Ratio40.55%50.44%60.33%70.22%80.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.5836.6640.9244.4547.3249.6152.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-7.68%-6.68%-5.68%
Year 1 PV (M)34.1134.4834.85
Year 2 PV (M)35.4336.2136.99
Year 3 PV (M)35.8236.9938.19
Year 4 PV (M)35.4837.0538.66
Year 5 PV (M)34.6236.5438.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,107.311,168.601,232.56
Equity Value (M)1,282.781,349.861,419.79
Shares Outstanding (M)26.1326.1326.13
Fair Value$49.09$51.66$54.34
Upside / Downside-47.04%-44.27%-41.39%

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