Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dekon Food & Agriculture Group (2419.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$142.89 - $222.04$179.49
Multi-Stage$322.77 - $355.98$339.05
Blended Fair Value$259.27
Current Price$72.57
Upside257.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.260.000.000.300.070.050.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%309.53%45.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,801.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)449.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,351.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,160.38725.23435.14
Cash Retained (M)5,351.895,351.895,351.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,160.38-725.23-435.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,191.514,626.654,916.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)383.11383.11383.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.9412.0812.83
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.9412.0812.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.1213.2514.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$142.89$179.49$222.04
Upside / Downside96.90%147.33%205.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,801.885,743.865,686.425,629.565,573.265,517.535,683.05
Payout Ratio7.76%24.20%40.65%57.10%73.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)449.991,390.292,311.733,214.614,099.204,965.775,256.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,294.571,307.781,320.99
Year 2 PV (M)2,004.372,045.492,087.02
Year 3 PV (M)2,595.312,675.582,757.48
Year 4 PV (M)3,081.643,209.363,341.00
Year 5 PV (M)3,476.083,657.093,845.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)111,204.46116,995.13123,024.56
Equity Value (M)123,656.43129,890.42136,376.61
Shares Outstanding (M)383.11383.11383.11
Fair Value$322.77$339.05$355.98
Upside / Downside344.77%367.20%390.53%

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