Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (2081.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.26 - $133.13$104.39
Multi-Stage$249.31 - $275.15$261.98
Blended Fair Value$183.18
Current Price$140.10
Upside30.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.002.141.070.570.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%100.00%87.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%2.25%1.56%0.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)259.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)206.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.8532.4119.44
Cash Retained (M)206.76206.76206.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.85-32.41-19.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)154.91174.35187.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.0035.0035.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.434.985.35
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.434.985.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.936.486.85
WACC / Discount Rate5.15%5.15%5.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$81.26$104.39$133.13
Upside / Downside-42.00%-25.49%-4.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)259.26256.67254.10251.56249.05246.56253.95
Payout Ratio20.25%34.20%48.15%62.10%76.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.5087.78122.35156.22189.40221.90234.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.15%5.15%5.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)82.6483.4884.33
Year 2 PV (M)108.44110.67112.91
Year 3 PV (M)130.35134.38138.50
Year 4 PV (M)148.78154.95161.31
Year 5 PV (M)164.11172.65181.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,091.668,513.018,951.74
Equity Value (M)8,725.989,169.159,630.33
Shares Outstanding (M)35.0035.0035.00
Fair Value$249.31$261.98$275.15
Upside / Downside77.95%86.99%96.40%

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