Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.41 - $114.44$84.73
Multi-Stage$112.21 - $123.23$117.61
Blended Fair Value$101.17
Current Price$210.00
Upside-51.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.91%2.58%2.495.494.331.871.575.932.771.241.592.36
YoY Growth---54.55%26.88%131.75%18.75%-73.51%114.57%123.13%-22.29%-32.41%22.07%
Dividend Yield--1.04%2.00%1.73%0.78%0.41%3.19%1.17%0.34%0.98%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,612.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)884.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)728.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)322.53201.58120.95
Cash Retained (M)728.17728.17728.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-322.53-201.58-120.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)405.64526.58607.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)354.58354.58354.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.491.71
LTM Dividend per Share2.492.492.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.491.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.643.984.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Fair Value$63.41$84.73$114.44
Upside / Downside-69.80%-59.65%-45.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,612.651,638.191,664.141,690.501,717.281,744.481,796.82
Payout Ratio54.85%61.88%68.91%75.94%82.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)884.481,013.671,146.721,283.741,424.811,570.031,662.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Year 1 PV (M)943.71953.10962.48
Year 2 PV (M)993.911,013.771,033.83
Year 3 PV (M)1,035.891,067.091,098.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,070.381,113.581,158.08
Year 5 PV (M)1,098.071,153.751,211.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,644.8036,401.5638,228.89
Equity Value (M)39,786.7641,702.8643,693.86
Shares Outstanding (M)354.58354.58354.58
Fair Value$112.21$117.61$123.23
Upside / Downside-46.57%-43.99%-41.32%

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