DDM Analysis: 1283.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.06 - $1.64	$1.33
Multi-Stage	$2.40 - $2.64	$2.51
Blended Fair Value	$1.92
Current Price	$1.38
Upside	39.17%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.06	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-16.27%	-37.84%	-40.32%	93.75%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.37%	3.01%	2.95%	4.06%	1.93%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	91.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	33.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)	57.49

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	18.26	11.41	6.85
Cash Retained (M)	57.49	57.49	57.49
(-) Cash Required (M)	-18.26	-11.41	-6.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	39.23	46.08	50.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	803.55	803.55	803.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.11
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$1.06	$1.33	$1.64
Upside / Downside	-23.34%	-3.88%	18.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	91.30	90.39	89.48	88.59	87.70	86.83	89.43
Payout Ratio	37.03%	47.62%	58.22%	68.81%	79.41%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	33.81	43.04	52.09	60.96	69.64	78.14	82.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	40.04	40.45	40.86
Year 2 PV (M)	45.07	46.00	46.93
Year 3 PV (M)	49.06	50.58	52.13
Year 4 PV (M)	52.13	54.30	56.52
Year 5 PV (M)	54.42	57.25	60.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,684.26	1,771.96	1,863.28
Equity Value (M)	1,924.98	2,020.53	2,119.92
Shares Outstanding (M)	803.55	803.55	803.55
Fair Value	$2.40	$2.51	$2.64
Upside / Downside	73.59%	82.21%	91.17%

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Accel Group Holdings Limited (1283.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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