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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy Group Limited (1250.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.71 - $4.26$3.42
Multi-Stage$6.56 - $7.24$6.89
Blended Fair Value$5.15
Current Price$1.58
Upside226.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.040.030.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%9.12%-1.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.73%0.49%1.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)617.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)596.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)123.4477.1546.29
Cash Retained (M)596.69596.69596.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-123.44-77.15-46.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)473.24519.53550.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,246.592,246.592,246.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate5.96%5.96%5.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.71$3.42$4.26
Upside / Downside71.24%116.38%169.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)617.22611.04604.93598.88592.90586.97604.58
Payout Ratio3.33%20.66%38.00%55.33%72.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.53126.25229.85331.37430.83528.27559.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.96%5.96%5.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)117.94119.15120.35
Year 2 PV (M)200.60204.72208.87
Year 3 PV (M)270.17278.53287.05
Year 4 PV (M)328.16341.76355.78
Year 5 PV (M)375.90395.48415.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,438.4514,138.2214,866.85
Equity Value (M)14,731.2315,477.8516,254.76
Shares Outstanding (M)2,246.592,246.592,246.59
Fair Value$6.56$6.89$7.24
Upside / Downside315.01%336.04%357.93%

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