Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (0ROY.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.23 - $84.75$79.42
Multi-Stage$14.98 - $16.42$15.69
Blended Fair Value$47.55
Current Price$5.71
Upside732.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.39%5.41%0.060.060.060.050.050.050.050.040.040.04
YoY Growth--15.70%-0.15%9.74%-2.07%9.77%-0.35%10.36%0.00%14.00%-0.87%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.55%0.59%0.40%0.56%0.58%0.64%0.68%0.93%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)521.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)365.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.3265.2039.12
Cash Retained (M)365.50365.50365.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.32-65.20-39.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)261.18300.30326.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,211.291,211.291,211.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate5.81%5.81%5.81%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$25.23$79.42$84.75
Upside / Downside341.86%1,290.88%1,384.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)521.60549.71579.34610.56643.47678.15698.50
Payout Ratio29.93%41.94%53.96%65.97%77.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.10230.56312.59402.79501.81610.34646.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.81%5.81%5.81%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)215.82217.89219.96
Year 2 PV (M)273.91279.18284.50
Year 3 PV (M)330.39339.97349.74
Year 4 PV (M)385.29400.27415.68
Year 5 PV (M)438.66460.08482.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,496.5917,302.0218,138.60
Equity Value (M)18,140.6618,999.4119,890.81
Shares Outstanding (M)1,211.291,211.291,211.29
Fair Value$14.98$15.69$16.42
Upside / Downside162.28%174.70%187.59%

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