Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Knorr-Bremse AG (0KBI.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Capital GoodsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.73 - $36.38$29.64
Multi-Stage$48.94 - $53.76$51.30
Blended Fair Value$40.47
Current Price$82.05
Upside-50.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.32%0.33%1.641.451.851.521.801.755.412.392.392.07
YoY Growth--12.95%-21.62%21.71%-15.56%2.86%-67.62%126.27%0.05%15.60%30.34%
Dividend Yield--1.96%2.07%3.02%2.18%1.69%2.17%5.97%2.93%2.93%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)421.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)282.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.3952.7431.65
Cash Retained (M)139.57139.57139.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.39-52.74-31.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.1886.82107.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)161.08161.08161.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.540.67
LTM Dividend per Share1.751.751.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.540.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.102.292.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-1.67%-0.67%0.33%
Fair Value$23.73$29.64$36.38
Upside / Downside-71.07%-63.88%-55.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)421.93419.11416.30413.50410.73407.98420.22
Payout Ratio66.92%71.54%76.15%80.77%85.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)282.37299.82317.02333.98350.70367.18388.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-1.67%-0.67%0.33%
Year 1 PV (M)277.35280.17282.99
Year 2 PV (M)271.29276.84282.44
Year 3 PV (M)264.39272.54280.85
Year 4 PV (M)256.82267.43278.36
Year 5 PV (M)248.74261.65275.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,563.856,904.487,259.10
Equity Value (M)7,882.468,263.118,658.85
Shares Outstanding (M)161.08161.08161.08
Fair Value$48.94$51.30$53.76
Upside / Downside-40.36%-37.48%-34.48%

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