Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $107.90 - $160.44 | $132.95 |
| Multi-Stage | $163.29 - $178.98 | $170.99 |
| Blended Fair Value | $151.97 | |
| Current Price | $300.41 | |
| Upside | -49.41% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 5.17% | 5.92% | 5.41 | 5.43 | 5.17 | 4.56 | 4.25 | 4.21 | 3.74 | 3.12 | 3.08 | 3.16 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.33% | 4.97% | 13.52% | 7.08% | 1.16% | 12.44% | 20.06% | 1.15% | -2.52% | 3.78% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.28% | 2.15% | 2.44% | 1.60% | 1.58% | 2.88% | 1.93% | 2.29% | 2.75% | 3.80% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,962.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,218.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,744.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 592.40 | 370.25 | 222.15 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,744.00 | 1,744.00 | 1,744.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -592.40 | -370.25 | -222.15 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,151.60 | 1,373.75 | 1,521.85 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 225.68 | 225.68 | 225.68 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 5.10 | 6.09 | 6.74 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 5.10 | 6.09 | 6.74 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 10.50 | 11.48 | 12.14 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.58% | 0.42% | 1.42% |
| Fair Value | $107.90 | $132.95 | $160.44 |
| Upside / Downside | -64.08% | -55.74% | -46.59% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,962.00 | 2,974.53 | 2,987.12 | 2,999.76 | 3,012.45 | 3,025.20 | 3,115.96 |
| Payout Ratio | 41.12% | 50.90% | 60.67% | 70.45% | 80.22% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,218.00 | 1,513.94 | 1,812.36 | 2,113.28 | 2,416.72 | 2,722.68 | 2,882.26 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.58% | 0.42% | 1.42% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,373.87 | 1,387.69 | 1,401.51 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,492.51 | 1,522.69 | 1,553.17 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,579.31 | 1,627.45 | 1,676.55 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,638.98 | 1,705.92 | 1,774.89 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,675.64 | 1,761.62 | 1,851.10 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 29,089.09 | 30,581.71 | 32,134.98 |
| Equity Value (M) | 36,849.41 | 38,587.08 | 40,392.19 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 225.68 | 225.68 | 225.68 |
| Fair Value | $163.29 | $170.99 | $178.98 |
| Upside / Downside | -45.65% | -43.08% | -40.42% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0R28.L | Newmont Corporation | 2.49% | $1.01 | 15.53% |
| ETR | Entergy Corporation | 2.49% | $2.34 | 57.35% |
| NKE | NIKE, Inc. | 2.49% | $1.58 | 80.59% |
| OTTR | Otter Tail Corporation | 2.49% | $2.03 | 30.69% |
| FHN | First Horizon Corporation | 2.48% | $0.60 | 34.42% |
| PWP | Perella Weinberg Partners | 2.48% | $0.44 | 69.65% |
| SCS | Steelcase Inc. | 2.48% | $0.40 | 50.05% |
| PBI | Pitney Bowes Inc. | 2.46% | $0.25 | 61.37% |
| RBCAA | Republic Bancorp, Inc. | 2.45% | $1.67 | 25.85% |
| SRCE | 1st Source Corporation | 2.45% | $1.53 | 25.20% |
| TRMK | Trustmark Corporation | 2.45% | $0.96 | 26.11% |
| VOYA | Voya Financial, Inc. | 2.45% | $1.86 | 29.46% |
| AWK | American Water Works Company, Inc. | 2.44% | $3.18 | 55.85% |
| LSTR | Landstar System, Inc. | 2.44% | $3.58 | 90.21% |
| NGL | NGL Energy Partners LP | 2.44% | $0.24 | 24.52% |
| TCFC | The Community Financial Corporation | 2.44% | $0.66 | 12.72% |
| CADE | Cadence Bank | 2.43% | $1.05 | 37.49% |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | 2.43% | $5.04 | 48.70% |
| MBCN | Middlefield Banc Corp. | 2.43% | $0.83 | 42.36% |
| 0L7G.L | Snap-on Incorporated | 2.42% | $8.43 | 44.15% |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works Inc. | 2.42% | $6.04 | 58.20% |
| MOFG | MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc. | 2.40% | $0.92 | 32.44% |
| FFIN | First Financial Bankshares, Inc. | 2.39% | $0.72 | 42.45% |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | 2.38% | $6.03 | 59.30% |
| CAL | Caleres, Inc. | 2.38% | $0.29 | 46.21% |
| ABM | ABM Industries Incorporated | 2.37% | $1.01 | 54.79% |
| FUNC | First United Corporation | 2.36% | $0.88 | 22.87% |
| HON | Honeywell International Inc. | 2.36% | $4.63 | 48.21% |
| RILYK | B. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.50% Senior Notes Due 2026 | 2.36% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| CDW | CDW Corporation | 2.35% | $3.14 | 39.31% |
| CHMG | Chemung Financial Corporation | 2.35% | $1.28 | 46.47% |
| LZB | La-Z-Boy Incorporated | 2.35% | $0.88 | 40.20% |
| PKG | Packaging Corporation of America | 2.35% | $4.97 | 50.31% |
| UNP | Union Pacific Corporation | 2.35% | $5.44 | 45.77% |
| 0K91.L | Northern Trust Corporation | 2.34% | $3.20 | 35.68% |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | 2.33% | $7.07 | 60.14% |
| MGEE | MGE Energy, Inc. | 2.32% | $1.82 | 49.49% |
| MZTI | The Marzetti Company | 2.32% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| UNM | Unum Group | 2.32% | $1.79 | 33.52% |
| RILYM | B. Riley Financial, Inc. - 6.37 | 2.31% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| RILYO | B. Riley Financial, Inc. - 6.75 | 2.31% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| HONIV | Honeywell International Inc. Common Stock Ex Distribution When Issued | 2.30% | $4.63 | 48.21% |
| PGR | The Progressive Corporation | 2.30% | $4.88 | 26.80% |
| WNEB | Western New England Bancorp, Inc. | 2.30% | $0.28 | 43.00% |
| 0R23.L | Halliburton Company | 2.29% | $0.68 | 44.61% |
| ADS | Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.29% | $1.30 | 21.08% |
| HLNE | Hamilton Lane Incorporated | 2.29% | $3.13 | 74.09% |
| BSVN | Bank7 Corp. | 2.28% | $0.94 | 20.81% |
| MCBC | Macatawa Bank Corporation | 2.28% | $0.34 | 28.37% |
| BRKL | Brookline Bancorp, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.54 | 61.06% |