Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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VBG Group AB (publ) (0GXK.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Capital GoodsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$945.83 - $3,368.39$3,086.52
Multi-Stage$432.20 - $472.71$452.09
Blended Fair Value$1,769.30
Current Price$314.40
Upside462.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.24%17.67%7.005.505.004.500.004.503.251.751.631.50
YoY Growth--27.25%10.00%11.11%0.00%-100.00%38.46%85.71%7.69%8.33%9.09%
Dividend Yield--2.50%1.77%2.90%3.22%0.00%3.91%2.32%1.31%1.44%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)423.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)181.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)241.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.6852.9331.76
Cash Retained (M)241.80241.80241.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.68-52.93-31.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)157.12188.88210.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25.0025.0025.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.297.568.40
LTM Dividend per Share7.267.267.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.297.568.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.5514.8215.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$945.83$3,086.52$3,368.39
Upside / Downside200.84%881.72%971.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)423.40450.92480.23511.45544.69580.09597.50
Payout Ratio42.89%52.31%61.73%71.16%80.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)181.60235.89296.47363.93438.90522.09552.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)218.36220.43222.50
Year 2 PV (M)254.05258.89263.78
Year 3 PV (M)288.69296.98305.42
Year 4 PV (M)322.30334.69347.44
Year 5 PV (M)354.90372.04389.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,365.929,818.3010,287.99
Equity Value (M)10,804.2311,301.3411,816.97
Shares Outstanding (M)25.0025.0025.00
Fair Value$432.20$452.09$472.71
Upside / Downside37.47%43.79%50.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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