Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lotus Bakeries N.V. (0F4O.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38,725.03 - $73,892.71$69,248.29
Multi-Stage$11,533.27 - $12,626.43$12,069.79
Blended Fair Value$40,659.04
Current Price$8,170.00
Upside397.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.72%18.70%57.8344.8640.3535.4431.8829.1119.8416.2614.2812.15
YoY Growth--28.91%11.17%13.85%11.16%9.53%46.72%22.02%13.89%17.52%16.67%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.55%0.64%0.63%0.87%1.12%0.92%0.76%0.57%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)302.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)108.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)193.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.4137.7622.65
Cash Retained (M)193.31193.31193.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.41-37.76-22.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)132.89155.55170.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.810.810.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share163.47191.34209.92
LTM Dividend per Share133.77133.77133.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share163.47191.34209.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend297.24325.11343.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38,725.03$69,248.29$73,892.71
Upside / Downside373.99%747.59%804.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)302.05321.69342.60364.87388.58413.84426.26
Payout Ratio36.00%46.80%57.60%68.40%79.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)108.75150.56197.34249.57307.76372.46394.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)140.29141.62142.95
Year 2 PV (M)171.35174.61177.91
Year 3 PV (M)201.92207.72213.63
Year 4 PV (M)232.02240.95250.12
Year 5 PV (M)261.65274.29287.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,368.728,772.949,192.62
Equity Value (M)9,375.969,812.1210,264.64
Shares Outstanding (M)0.810.810.81
Fair Value$11,533.27$12,069.79$12,626.43
Upside / Downside41.17%47.73%54.55%

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