DDM Analysis: 0398.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$51.78 - $122.94	$115.21
Multi-Stage	$17.86 - $19.56	$18.69
Blended Fair Value	$66.95
Current Price	$3.36
Upside	1,892.65%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	4.27%	49.08%	0.48	0.15	0.75	0.71	0.27	0.39	0.40	0.06	0.01	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	228.28%	-80.54%	5.41%	159.75%	-29.53%	-4.38%	538.82%	1,100.31%	28.61%	-53.35%
Dividend Yield	-	-	13.45%	4.20%	17.13%	16.95%	10.35%	25.08%	17.11%	2.76%	0.29%	0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	301.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	58.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	243.28

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	60.26	37.66	22.60
Cash Retained (M)	243.28	243.28	243.28
(-) Cash Required (M)	-60.26	-37.66	-22.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	183.03	205.62	220.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	487.36	487.36	487.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.38	0.42	0.45
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.38	0.42	0.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.49	0.54	0.57
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$51.78	$115.21	$122.94
Upside / Downside	1,440.98%	3,329.00%	3,558.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	301.28	320.86	341.72	363.93	387.58	412.78	425.16
Payout Ratio	19.25%	33.40%	47.55%	61.70%	75.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	58.00	107.17	162.49	224.54	293.98	371.50	393.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	99.67	100.62	101.56
Year 2 PV (M)	140.56	143.24	145.94
Year 3 PV (M)	180.66	185.85	191.13
Year 4 PV (M)	219.99	228.45	237.16
Year 5 PV (M)	258.56	271.05	284.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,803.38	8,180.29	8,571.62
Equity Value (M)	8,702.83	9,109.50	9,531.43
Shares Outstanding (M)	487.36	487.36	487.36
Fair Value	$17.86	$18.69	$19.56
Upside / Downside	431.46%	456.30%	482.06%

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Oriental Watch Holdings Limited (0398.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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