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Definitive Analysis

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Orient Overseas (International) Limited (0316.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$478.35 - $1,135.60$1,064.22
Multi-Stage$168.26 - $184.09$176.03
Blended Fair Value$620.13
Current Price$16.99
Upside3,549.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.61%24.16%0.775.429.305.581.820.140.000.020.020.12
YoY Growth---85.70%-41.72%66.79%207.12%1,234.19%0.00%-100.00%15.37%-85.78%38.78%
Dividend Yield--5.22%38.39%51.52%22.73%18.17%2.81%0.00%0.21%0.42%2.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,770.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,839.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,931.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)754.16471.35282.81
Cash Retained (M)1,931.651,931.651,931.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-754.16-471.35-282.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,177.501,460.301,648.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)660.37660.37660.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.782.212.50
LTM Dividend per Share2.792.792.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.782.212.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.575.005.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$478.35$1,064.22$1,135.60
Upside / Downside2,715.50%6,163.80%6,583.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,770.794,015.904,276.934,554.934,851.005,166.315,321.30
Payout Ratio48.77%57.02%65.26%73.51%81.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,839.142,289.812,791.293,348.303,965.924,649.684,922.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,129.722,149.902,170.09
Year 2 PV (M)2,414.632,460.622,507.05
Year 3 PV (M)2,693.972,771.302,850.10
Year 4 PV (M)2,967.803,081.933,199.33
Year 5 PV (M)3,236.213,392.523,554.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)97,673.78102,391.46107,289.70
Equity Value (M)111,116.11116,247.75121,571.09
Shares Outstanding (M)660.37660.37660.37
Fair Value$168.26$176.03$184.09
Upside / Downside890.36%936.10%983.55%

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