Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sijin Intelligent Forming Machinery Co., Ltd. (003025.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.45 - $116.18$108.88
Multi-Stage$16.90 - $18.50$17.69
Blended Fair Value$63.28
Current Price$13.77
Upside359.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.44%32.48%0.190.240.200.180.120.120.170.060.050.01
YoY Growth---19.44%16.00%16.67%44.01%0.00%-28.74%163.71%42.89%429.08%-25.34%
Dividend Yield--1.25%1.94%1.37%1.61%1.23%1.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)144.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)93.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.9818.1110.87
Cash Retained (M)93.2693.2693.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.98-18.11-10.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.2875.1582.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)248.02248.02248.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.45$108.88$116.18
Upside / Downside244.60%690.69%743.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)144.89154.31164.34175.02186.40198.52204.47
Payout Ratio35.63%46.51%57.38%68.25%79.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.6371.7794.30119.46147.49178.66189.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)66.7367.3667.99
Year 2 PV (M)81.5383.0884.65
Year 3 PV (M)96.0398.79101.60
Year 4 PV (M)110.24114.48118.84
Year 5 PV (M)124.17130.16136.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,714.113,893.504,079.76
Equity Value (M)4,192.804,387.384,589.23
Shares Outstanding (M)248.02248.02248.02
Fair Value$16.90$17.69$18.50
Upside / Downside22.77%28.46%34.37%

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