Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.,Ltd. (003011.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.58 - $19.45$15.77
Multi-Stage$28.08 - $30.94$29.48
Blended Fair Value$22.62
Current Price$20.64
Upside9.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS29.83%0.00%0.680.710.480.330.180.190.060.050.050.00
YoY Growth---3.09%47.46%45.55%79.59%-1.27%223.29%11.36%-2.02%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.62%4.39%1.97%1.30%0.47%0.47%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7717.3610.41
Cash Retained (M)104.67104.67104.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.77-17.36-10.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.9087.3194.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.46102.46102.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.750.850.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.750.850.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.191.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.58$15.77$19.45
Upside / Downside-39.04%-23.60%-5.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.85137.46136.09134.73133.38132.05136.01
Payout Ratio24.62%37.69%50.77%63.85%76.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.1851.8269.0986.02102.60118.84125.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)48.1948.6849.17
Year 2 PV (M)59.7660.9862.22
Year 3 PV (M)69.1871.3273.51
Year 4 PV (M)76.7479.9283.20
Year 5 PV (M)82.6686.9791.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,540.522,672.812,810.55
Equity Value (M)2,877.053,020.683,170.10
Shares Outstanding (M)102.46102.46102.46
Fair Value$28.08$29.48$30.94
Upside / Downside36.04%42.83%49.90%

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